Milton Keynes U3A

One of our members expressed surprise that one UK poll puts Labour 8% ahead of their main rivals (Lab 32%; Tories 24%; Reform 20%) when, in the member’s view, the Prime Minister is vacuous and has yet to say or do anything of significance.  The PM’s comments about the lack of social care being likely to ‘break’ the NHS were especially irrelevant as the NHS is already broken, with long waiting lists for hip/knee replacements and cancer treatment, amongst other things.  There are also shortages of key staff and equipment such as radiographers and MRI scanners.  Others in the group contested this assessment of the NHS, reporting satisfactory treatment times, whilst accepting that the system is not perfect. (and it never has been as good as we might like it to be. Perhaps the issue is that our experience of treatment we have received shapes our perception of the whole, one of the largest organisations in the country).  Many of the concerns cited are about funding; this has long been an issue (and will continue to be so, given that medical science advances faster than diseases can be treated).  One of the issues in this regard is that the NHS is funded through general taxation, whilst many European countries have insurance based schemes.  The question was posed as to whether any other UK political party were promising (or likely) to do better.  One member said that from his experience, successive governments kept trying to change how the NHS was organised /managed rather than building on and improving the good things that were already in place.

Returning to the initial premise set out above regarding Labour’s performance, it was pointed out that politics is about voters’ choice of parties; if one thinks the current government is lacking, which party would be a better alternative?   At the moment the other major parties are, arguably and for different reasons, performing worse than Labour, which is reflected in their current polling.

On the subject of elections, surprise (mostly pleasant) was expressed at the results of the outcome of elections in Serbia and Brazil.  In both cases there are concerns for each of these new governments: the Serbian Student List party has very few members with political experience and whilst they have united against the previous administration, they now face the problem of coming together to agree on a positive programme of government.  In Brazil, although President Lula is a progressive, over the term of his last incumbency he has failed to tackle many of the economic problems facing  the country.  And given he will soon be 81 yrs old, he must also nominate (and prepare) a successor, something he didn’t do previously.  There was a view that the elections in Israel will be very close and, anyway, may not have a major effect on the policy towards Palestinians. Others thought that the removal of Prime Minister Netanyahu would provide an opportunity for change.  We also speculated on the outcome of the US midterms, and how President Trump may react if the Republicans lose both the House ((likely) and the Senate (possible).  (An article by a US political commentator on the state of democracy in the US can be found here.)

Our Prime MIniser has recently raised a proposal to have a wide ranging discussion about ‘freedom of movement’ as part of better relations with the EU.  The PM’s position seems to be that he wants to talk about our relationship with the EU but has not set out any specific goal or outcome that he wants to achieve.  On the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg programme, Jeremy Hunt (ex Tory MP) warned that this might go against the plan to provide more jobs for British young people as there could be an influx of workers from EU countries.  There were mixed views with our group; some pointed out that in  some sectors, such as construction, there were huge shortages of workers. Others said that in the past we had benefitted from a surplus of doctors that had been trained in Germany to make up the gaps in UK medical services that we had failed to provide through UK medical training schools.  Other members thought that there will be an inevitable impact if UK employers are able to employ low-paid, low skilled workers from the EU in preference to our own job-seekers.  Also, such EU based workers become eligible for UK benefits. Another view was that whilst there are vacancies in some low-paid areas such as care-workers and agriculture, it is optimistic to expect that these can (or will) be filled by unemployed (young) British workers.  

The government has recently given the go-ahead to extract gas from the Jackdaw field; will it do the same for the Rosebank oilfield?  The arguments for Jackdaw are that it is already operational and gas will soon be flowing via existing pipelines to the UK.  Though it will only be some 4% of UK requirements, it will provide jobs and tax income for UK and cut down on carbon emissions through the need to import gas from elsewhere in the world.  The arguments for Rosebank are more equivocal.  The field has not yet been developed; this will provide many jobs initially but there will be large carbon emissions in just reaching the oil; in addition, the developers will get large tax breaks (which some argue will outweigh any subsequent tax receipts).  Also the oil will be sold on international markets and will not be a direct benefit to UK consumers.   Whilst the government’s policy of reaching net-zero will be affected by both, the ‘damage’ from Jackdaw will be less as the UK is still going to be using gas for the next 15-20 years.  The decision in both cases is one of pragmatism versus principle.

We talked briefly about the recent government advice to stockpile at least 3-days worth of food and water.  One comment in the group was that most of us who do a weekly shop will generally have 3-days in stock of food, anyway, but perhaps not water.  A question was raised about cooking/heating if there is no electricity (or mains gas).  It was pointed out that tinned food can be eaten cold straight from the tin (ensure the tin isn't damaged), though this can be an acquired taste for some items.  If one  is going to use a gas camping stove, this should be done outside (or where there is good ventilation).  It is unlikely that every service - electricity, gas, water - will be off at the same time everywhere, so use common-sense to plan for different situations.  Those who live in areas prone to storms that bring down power lines - Scotland, Cornwall - will have experience of what needs to be done. 

We turned to the protests and demonstrations that have occurred in France and elsewhere: is that likely to happen here?  Most of us thought not; the French have a culture of street protests that is not found in the UK.  Yes, there have been protests, such as riots and looting in Tottenham in 2011 following the shooting of Mark Duggan by police and which were accompanied by some looting.  Similarly, the more widespread demonstrations against immigrants following the Southport murders in 2024.  But in neither case did they develop into a ‘national movement’ against the government’ in the way that sometimes occurs in France.  The riots that sprang up elsewhere in Europe - Milan, Spain, Albania and Belgium - often related to cost-of-living issues, were also generally limited in scale and number. Nevertheless, the common theme appears to be a general dissatisfaction with centre-left, or -right governments across Europe (including UK: cf our first discussion topic above).  Here is an article from The Economist on the difficulties that Western liberal governments are facing.

Finally, one of our members followed up on previous discussions regarding the  national finances and how they have fared, specifically looking at any link between inflation and the Bank base rate. Received wisdom says that when inflation is high, then interest rates should be raised to dampen it.  The graph, of which our member gave out paper copies, shows that there has been only a weak correlation between UK inflation and interest rates, so this argument is not conclusive.  It may have some effect when the inflationary pressures are mainly domestic but in the current climate, higher inflation is largely due to the international price of energy, which is being driven by wars in Russia/Ukraine and Iran.  These conflicts are not within the control of (most) national governments but affect everyone, so will hiking base rates have any effect?  One view was that increasing interest rates was the ‘expected’ measure, so not to do it could lead to an adverse reaction in the bond markets.